If US takes control of Venezuela’s oil, who gains and who loses?
New Delhi | Desk: If the US seizes Venezuela's oil reserves after arresting Maduro, which countries will benefit and which will suffer? Following US airstrikes on Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, and the detention and transfer of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife to the US, along with US President Donald Trump's statement that the US would "run" Venezuela and control its oil reserves,
these events have sent shockwaves through the global oil market.
Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, and if its oil returns to the international market on a large scale, several countries will benefit, while others may suffer losses.
The biggest beneficiary: the US
The biggest beneficiary of this entire development could be the United States itself. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Venezuela has approximately 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, representing about 17 percent of the global total. A large portion of this is located in the Orinoco Belt and consists mostly of "heavy" or "ultra-heavy" crude oil.
Many refineries on the US Gulf Coast and West Coast are specifically designed to process this type of heavy, high-sulfur crude oil. This is why heavy crude oil is considered more suitable for approximately 70 percent of the US refining capacity. If Venezuelan oil comes under US control, the US could gain access to cheaper and more suitable crude oil.
In addition, US companies such as ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil could have the opportunity to recover billions of dollars in compensation for past disputes. Chevron is already the only major US company operating in Venezuela and could directly benefit from expansion.
Negative impact on Canada
Canada is the largest supplier of crude oil to the US, accounting for about 60 percent of US imports. Most of Canada's oil comes from Alberta's oil sands, which is similar in quality to Venezuela's heavy crude.
If Venezuelan oil regains preferential access to the US market, it could put increased pressure on Canadian oil prices and market share. Venezuela's reserves are roughly double those of Alberta, which could make competition even more difficult for Canada.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer and most influential member, could also be affected by this shift. Venezuela has even larger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and is a founding member of OPEC, although its current share of global production is only about 1 percent.
If Venezuelan production increases rapidly with US support, it could weaken Saudi Arabia's ability to control prices through OPEC. OPEC+ recently announced a halt to production increases, but Venezuela's return could disrupt this balance.
Pressure on Russia's prices and revenue
Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil exporter, and its economy is heavily dependent on energy exports. A large influx of Venezuelan oil into the market would put downward pressure on global prices, affecting Russia's revenue and market share. This could pose an economic challenge for Russia, especially given its already increased government spending due to the war in Ukraine.
The European Union has reduced its dependence on Russia in recent years, increasing oil imports from the US, Norway, and Kazakhstan. US oil has now become a major source for Europe.
If the US controls the flow of Venezuelan oil, it could further increase US influence over European supply and prices. This could complicate the EU's energy diversification strategy.
China was once a major buyer of Venezuelan oil, but its reliance has decreased significantly in recent years. In 2024, Venezuela accounted for only 0.27 percent of China's total oil imports, a figure that decreased further in 2025.
However, China has diversified its energy sources for energy security and has also emphasized renewable energy. Despite this, Chinese companies are investing in Venezuela. One Chinese company is working on a plan to invest nearly a billion dollars to increase production there.
Thus, if the US gains control over Venezuelan oil, it could yield strategic and economic advantages for the US, while countries like Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Russia might suffer losses.
For Europe, this would introduce new uncertainties, and the impact on China would be limited but significant. Overall, this move could redefine global oil politics and market dynamics.
