UN issues fresh El Niño warning

New Delhi | Desk: The United Nations' Weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has warned that the developing El Niño weather pattern could trigger severe weather across the globe in the upcoming months. 

Scientists estimate there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August, with the probability increasing to 90% by November. 

Calling it an urgent climate warning, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world must be prepared for its far-reaching impacts. 

El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, changes global weather patterns by affecting winds, rainfall, and temperatures. This year's event is expected to be moderate to strong in intensity. 

According to the WMO, countries in South America, parts of the United States, Central Asia and South Asia, and the Horn of Africa may experience heavy rainfall and flooding. At the same time, regions including Australia, Indonesia, Central America and South Asia, including India, could face drought-like conditions. The phenomenon may also increase the risk of powerful cyclones in the Central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Experts have warned that the weather disruption could affect food production, which might lead to a price hike globally. Heidi Schoemaker, CEO of cocoa processor Barry Callebaut, said cocoa crops in Ecuador and West Africa, which together account for around 60% of global production, could be hit, leading to higher prices. 

Health experts have also expressed concern. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that rising temperatures and changing weather patterns could increase the spread of diseases carried by mosquitoes and other insects. Many regions may also face shortages of food and clean drinking water. 

The previous El Niño event in 2023-24 played a major role in making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded. To prepare for possible extreme weather and wildfires, the European Union has decided to send more firefighters and aircraft to countries at high risk, including Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the warning is a reminder that countries need to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and switch to cleaner sources of energy to deal with the growing climate crisis.